Model Uncertainty Visualization
Confidence intervals • Model disagreement • Upset probabilities
Win Probability with 95% Confidence Intervals
Bars show the 95% confidence interval. Wider bars indicate higher model uncertainty for that prediction.
Model Agreement: VER
XGBoost
40.3%
LightGBM
39.0%
CatBoost
36.5%
Neural
34.6%
Ensemble
40.7%
Model Disagreement: 6.1% (Models agree)
Upset Probability
Probability of a surprise podium from lower-ranked drivers
Russell
Potential upset candidate
9.9%
upset chance
Sainz
Potential upset candidate
7.8%
upset chance
Alonso
Potential upset candidate
5.9%
upset chance
Championship Monte Carlo Projections (1000 simulations)
NOR
455 pts
380-520
72%
WDC prob
VER
415 pts
340-480
22%
WDC prob
LEC
355 pts
280-420
4%
WDC prob
HAM
325 pts
250-390
2%
WDC prob
PIA
295 pts
220-360
0%
WDC prob
P10-P90 P25-P75 Median